Two plain arithmetic tools: work out your store's cart abandonment rate from your own counts, then estimate what the abandoned checkouts add up to each month. Formulas shown below. No signup, nothing stored.
Use the same period for both numbers (a month works well). "Carts started" can be carts created or checkouts started, depending on which your analytics reports — just say which one you used when you quote the result.
Default of 70% is based on the Baymard Institute's meta-analysis of published studies — edit it if you know your store's own rate.
These rows are arithmetic illustrations, not predictions — actual recovery depends on your audience, channels, timing, and offer.
abandonment rate = 1 − orders completed ÷ carts started orders = sessions × conversion rate checkouts started ≈ orders ÷ (1 − abandonment rate) abandoned checkouts = checkouts started − orders abandoned value = abandoned checkouts × average order value
Caveats: this treats every abandoned checkout as carrying one average order, ignores seasonality, and assumes your abandonment rate applies uniformly. Treat the output as a rough order of magnitude. Note that only checkouts where the shopper entered contact details can be followed up by email — see when Shopify creates an abandoned checkout and abandoned cart vs. abandoned checkout.
Cartback recovers abandoned carts for Shopify stores with AI-timed email and web push — flat pricing, free plan to start. View it on the Shopify App Store →